Market comparison
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $5K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 28s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Basilashvili Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 88.5% Bid 82.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 65.5% Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 60.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 65.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 55.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 98.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 46.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 48.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 45.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 41.5% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Game Spread +/-3.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 39.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 38.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 36.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0% Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Stefanos Tsitsipas Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Basilashvili
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
88.5%
Bid 82.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
65.5%
Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
60.0%
Bid 55.0% · Ask 65.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
55.5%
Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 2.0% · Ask 98.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
46.5%
Bid 45.0% · Ask 48.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
45.5%
Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
41.5%
Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Game Spread +/-3.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
39.0%
Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
38.5%
Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
36.0%
Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0%
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.