Market comparison

Arizona's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Arizona's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.5% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.8% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.7% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 14.0% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.7% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.8% Bid 0.4% · Ask 7.2% Democrat 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.6% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stanton, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.5% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.2% Stanton, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.5% Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.0% Stanton, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	78.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0% Stanton, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0% Stanton, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	56.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 61.0% Stanton, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	47.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 47.0% Stanton, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 34.0% Stanton, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0% Stanton, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 28+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.1% Bid 7.1% · Ask 13.0% Stanton, 28+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stanton, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.8% Stanton, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.5%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.7%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 14.0%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.7%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.8%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 7.2%

Democrat 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.6%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Stanton, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.5%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.2%

Stanton, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.5%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.0%

Stanton, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0%

Stanton, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0%

Stanton, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 61.0%

Stanton, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 47.0%

Stanton, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 34.0%

Stanton, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0%

Stanton, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 28+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.1%

Bid 7.1% · Ask 13.0%

Stanton, 28+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stanton, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.8%

Stanton, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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