Market comparison

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

1 venue · 34 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

34 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Best LLM at the end of the decade?
Outcome	Kalshi	Difference
Alibaba Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗	—
Amazon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Amazon Open Kalshi ↗	—
Anthropic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% Anthropic Open Kalshi ↗	—
Arcee AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Arcee AI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baidu Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Baidu Open Kalshi ↗	—
ByteDance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% ByteDance Open Kalshi ↗	—
China Mobile Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% China Mobile Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cohere Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Cohere Open Kalshi ↗	—
DeepSeek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% DeepSeek Open Kalshi ↗	—
Essential AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Essential AI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 77.0% Google Open Kalshi ↗	—
Huawei Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Huawei Open Kalshi ↗	—
Inception Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Inception Open Kalshi ↗	—
InclusionAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% InclusionAI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Institute of Foundation Models Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Institute of Foundation Models Open Kalshi ↗	—
LG AI Research Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% LG AI Research Open Kalshi ↗	—
LongCat Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% LongCat Open Kalshi ↗	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% Meta Open Kalshi ↗	—
Microsoft Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Microsoft Open Kalshi ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% MiniMax Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mistral Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Mistral Open Kalshi ↗	—
Moonshot Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Moonshot Open Kalshi ↗	—
NVIDIA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% NVIDIA Open Kalshi ↗	—
OpenAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0% OpenAI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Prime Intellect Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Prime Intellect Open Kalshi ↗	—
Reflection AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Reflection AI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Safe Superintelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Safe Superintelligence Open Kalshi ↗	—
StepFun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% StepFun Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Tencent Open Kalshi ↗	—
Thinking Machines Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Thinking Machines Open Kalshi ↗	—
Upstage Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Upstage Open Kalshi ↗	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% xAI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Xiaomi Open Kalshi ↗	—
Z AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Z AI Open Kalshi ↗	—

Alibaba

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

Amazon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Amazon

Open Kalshi ↗

Anthropic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0%

Anthropic

Open Kalshi ↗

Arcee AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Arcee AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Baidu

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Baidu

Open Kalshi ↗

ByteDance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

ByteDance

Open Kalshi ↗

China Mobile

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

China Mobile

Open Kalshi ↗

Cohere

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Cohere

Open Kalshi ↗

DeepSeek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

DeepSeek

Open Kalshi ↗

Essential AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Essential AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 77.0%

Google

Open Kalshi ↗

Huawei

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Huawei

Open Kalshi ↗

Inception

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Inception

Open Kalshi ↗

InclusionAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

InclusionAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Institute of Foundation Models

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Institute of Foundation Models

Open Kalshi ↗

LG AI Research

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

LG AI Research

Open Kalshi ↗

LongCat

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

LongCat

Open Kalshi ↗

Microsoft

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Microsoft

Open Kalshi ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

MiniMax

Open Kalshi ↗

Mistral

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Mistral

Open Kalshi ↗

Moonshot

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Moonshot

Open Kalshi ↗

NVIDIA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

NVIDIA

Open Kalshi ↗

OpenAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0%

OpenAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Prime Intellect

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Prime Intellect

Open Kalshi ↗

Reflection AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Reflection AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Safe Superintelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Safe Superintelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

StepFun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

StepFun

Open Kalshi ↗

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Tencent

Open Kalshi ↗

Thinking Machines

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Thinking Machines

Open Kalshi ↗

Upstage

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Upstage

Open Kalshi ↗

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

xAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Xiaomi

Open Kalshi ↗

Z AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Z AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Kalshi

Alibaba

Kalshi

Amazon

Kalshi

Anthropic

Kalshi

Arcee AI

Kalshi

Baidu

Kalshi

ByteDance

Kalshi

China Mobile

Kalshi

Cohere

Kalshi

DeepSeek

Kalshi

Essential AI

Kalshi

Google

Kalshi

Huawei

Kalshi

Inception

Kalshi

InclusionAI

Kalshi

Institute of Foundation Models

Kalshi

LG AI Research

Kalshi

LongCat

Kalshi

Meta

Kalshi

Microsoft

Kalshi

MiniMax

Kalshi

Mistral

Kalshi

Moonshot

Kalshi

NVIDIA

Kalshi

OpenAI

Kalshi

Prime Intellect

Kalshi

Reflection AI

Kalshi

Safe Superintelligence

Kalshi

StepFun

Kalshi

Tencent

Kalshi

Thinking Machines

Kalshi

Upstage

Kalshi

xAI

Kalshi

Xiaomi

Kalshi

Z AI

Kalshi