Market comparison

Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 7

2 venues · 26 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

18 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 2, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 7
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Been By Now Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Been By Now Open Kalshi ↗	2.6% Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.9% Been By Now - Morgan Wallen Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
Boston Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Boston Open Kalshi ↗	1.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.3% Boston - Stella Lefty Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Choosin' Texas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	54.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 69.0% Choosin' Texas Open Kalshi ↗	39.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 47.0% Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley Open Polymarket ↗	14.5 pp
Patient Zero Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	14.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 14.0% Patient Zero Open Kalshi ↗	2.6% Bid 0.5% · Ask 4.8% Patient Zero - Taylor Swift Open Polymarket ↗	11.4 pp
Solar Eclipse Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Solar Eclipse Open Kalshi ↗	1.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.7% Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Babydoll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Babydoll Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
BbY WOW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BbY WOW Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
BE HER Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% BE HER Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Earrings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Earrings Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.6% Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.9% expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan Open Polymarket ↗	—
hate that i made you love me Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% hate that i made you love me Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Housewife - Tate McRae Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 72.0% Housewife - Tate McRae Open Polymarket ↗	—
I Just Might Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% I Just Might Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
JADED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% JADED Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
LAST THING YOU NEED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LAST THING YOU NEED Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
LOVING LIFE AGAIN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% LOVING LIFE AGAIN Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Midnight Sun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Midnight Sun Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nicole Kidman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nicole Kidman Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Risk It All Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Risk It All Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Song 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 1 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Song 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 2 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Song 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 3 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Song 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 4 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Song 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Song 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Song 6 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
stupid song Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% stupid song Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Been By Now

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Been By Now

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.9%

Been By Now - Morgan Wallen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

Boston

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Boston

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.3%

Boston - Stella Lefty

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Choosin' Texas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 69.0%

Choosin' Texas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

39.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 47.0%

Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 14.5 pp

Patient Zero

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 14.0%

Patient Zero

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 4.8%

Patient Zero - Taylor Swift

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.4 pp

Solar Eclipse

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Solar Eclipse

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.7%

Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Babydoll

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Babydoll

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

BbY WOW

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BbY WOW

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

BE HER

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BE HER

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Earrings

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Earrings

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.9%

expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan

Open Polymarket ↗

hate that i made you love me

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

hate that i made you love me

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Housewife - Tate McRae

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 72.0%

Housewife - Tate McRae

Open Polymarket ↗

I Just Might

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

I Just Might

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

JADED

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

JADED

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

LAST THING YOU NEED

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LAST THING YOU NEED

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

LOVING LIFE AGAIN

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Midnight Sun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Midnight Sun

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nicole Kidman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nicole Kidman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Risk It All

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Risk It All

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Song 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 1 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 2 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 3 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 4 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Song 6 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

stupid song

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

stupid song

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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