The Prediction Markets

Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 7

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Choosin' Texas 50.6%

Next is Housewife - Tate McRae at 35.5%. The venues differ most on Patient Zero (Polymarket 2.7%, Kalshi 14%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
50.6%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 50s agoKalshi 54%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1000
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 45¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Housewife - Tate McRae
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Housewife - Tate McRae
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Polymarket
Patient Zero
11.2%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 50s agoKalshi 14%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patient Zero - Taylor Swift
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Been By Now
1.4%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 50s agoKalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Been By Now
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Boston
1.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 50s agoKalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston - Stella Lefty
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Solar Eclipse
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 50s agoKalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Solar Eclipse
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Babydoll
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babydoll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
BbY WOW
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BbY WOW
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
BE HER
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BE HER
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Earrings
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Earrings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
hate that i made you love me
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
hate that i made you love me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
JADED
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
JADED
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
LAST THING YOU NEED
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LAST THING YOU NEED
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Midnight Sun
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midnight Sun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk It All
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk It All
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
stupid song
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
stupid song
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • Housewife - Tate McRae
  • Patient Zero

Live prices for Choosin' Texas

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 7". Choosin' Texas leads at 50.6%. Next is Housewife - Tate McRae at 35.5%. $4K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 7, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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