The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

La Serna

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Juan Manuel La Serna

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

99.5%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

99.5%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Game Spread +/-3.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 100.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid — · Ask 97.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 88.0%

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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