The Prediction Markets

Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

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Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 68%

Next is Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 50%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
40¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
29¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
20¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
33¢
Volume
$44
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
63¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
16¢
Volume
$688
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
8¢
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 21.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Match O/U 22.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Manuel La Serna
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Manuel La Serna
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
  • Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida". Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida leads at 68%. Next is Cali: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 50%. $4K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. This market will resolve to 'Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida' if Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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