Market comparison

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

2 venues · 14 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $33K reported volume

Observed 7m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

37 outcomes · $32K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
David Fennell Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% David Fennell · closed Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.7% David Fennell Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Fiona Ma Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	95.7% Bid 95.7% · Ask 96.9% Fiona Ma Open Kalshi ↗	96.8% Bid 95.7% · Ask 97.9% Fiona Ma Open Polymarket ↗	1.1 pp
Janelle Kellman Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Janelle Kellman · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.3% Janelle Kellman Open Polymarket ↗	1.1 pp
Josh Fryday Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.5% Josh Fryday · closed Open Kalshi ↗	0.9% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.4% Josh Fryday Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Michael Tubbs Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Michael Tubbs · closed Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Michael Tubbs Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Oliver Ma Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Oliver Ma · closed Open Kalshi ↗	0.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.3% Oliver Ma Open Polymarket ↗	0.7 pp
Brian Dahle Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Brian Dahle · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
David Collenberg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% David Collenberg Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ebie Lynch Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Ebie Lynch Open Polymarket ↗	—
Gloria Romero Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.2% Gloria Romero Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jeyson Lopez Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Jeyson Lopez Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rakesh Christian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Rakesh Christian Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sean Collinson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Sean Collinson Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tim Myers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Tim Myers · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

David Fennell

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

David Fennell · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.7%

David Fennell

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Fiona Ma

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

95.7%

Bid 95.7% · Ask 96.9%

Fiona Ma

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

96.8%

Bid 95.7% · Ask 97.9%

Fiona Ma

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Janelle Kellman

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Janelle Kellman · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.3%

Janelle Kellman

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Josh Fryday

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.5%

Josh Fryday · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.4%

Josh Fryday

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Michael Tubbs

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Michael Tubbs · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Michael Tubbs

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Oliver Ma

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Oliver Ma · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.3%

Oliver Ma

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Brian Dahle

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Brian Dahle · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

David Collenberg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

David Collenberg

Open Polymarket ↗

Ebie Lynch

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Ebie Lynch

Open Polymarket ↗

Gloria Romero

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.2%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.2%

Gloria Romero

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jeyson Lopez

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Jeyson Lopez

Open Polymarket ↗

Rakesh Christian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Rakesh Christian

Open Polymarket ↗

Sean Collinson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Sean Collinson

Open Polymarket ↗

Tim Myers

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Tim Myers · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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