The Prediction Markets

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Starts in 11 daysKickoff
Traded
$65K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Fiona Ma 90.9%

Next is Gloria Romero at 4%. The venues differ most on Fiona Ma (Polymarket 96.5%, Kalshi 95.4%), a 1.1-point gap.

Fiona Ma 90.9%Gloria Romero 4%Janelle Kellman 1.2%Oliver Ma 1.1%Josh Fryday 0.8%7 others 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fiona Ma
90.9%
Polymarket 96.5%(90.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95.4%(90.9% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fiona Ma
Last price
96.5%
Fair, margin removed
90.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
95.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fiona Ma
Last price
95.4%
Fair, margin removed
90.9%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
95.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96.9¢.

Gloria Romero
4%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gloria Romero
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Janelle Kellman
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janelle Kellman
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oliver Ma
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Ma
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Fryday
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Fryday
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ebie Lynch
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ebie Lynch
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Fennell
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fennell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Collenberg
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Collenberg
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeyson Lopez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeyson Lopez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Tubbs
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Tubbs
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean Collinson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Collinson
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rakesh Christian
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rakesh Christian
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the State of California
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fiona Ma
  • Gloria Romero
  • Janelle Kellman

Live prices for Fiona Ma

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner". Fiona Ma leads at 90.9%. Next is Gloria Romero at 4%. $65K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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