Market comparison
Champions League Quarterfinals Qualifiers
2 venues · 36 outcome rows · 36 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗36 outcomes · $71K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Mar 20, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗36 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Apr 1, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Polymarket resolves No if the quarterfinal matchup is not declared by April 30, 2027 or the tournament is cancelled/postponed; Kalshi has no such fallback and its rules are silent on cancellation.
- Polymarket resolves No as soon as a club is mathematically eliminated, and allows a consensus of credible reporting; Kalshi has no early-resolution text and relies on actual qualification. Both should give the same result in ordinary scenarios.
- Kalshi says a team that qualifies but does not compete still resolves Yes; Polymarket says 'reaches the quarterfinal' and is silent on withdrawal or forfeit after qualifying.
- Kalshi names no resolution source; Polymarket uses UEFA official information, with credible reporting also allowed.
- Kalshi lists PSG, Leipzig, Dortmund, Inter, Atletico, Shakhtar, Stuttgart and Sabah Masazir; Polymarket uses full names (Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, etc.) and 'Sabah'. These are naming differences only.
- Kalshi lists a few teams (e.g. none unmatched beyond naming) but venue end dates differ (Kalshi 2027-04-01 vs Polymarket 2027-03-20); both are well before or after the actual quarterfinal qualification (March 2027), so the listing dates are not the settlement deadline.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
AEK Athens Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp | ||
Arsenal Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Aston Villa Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.0 pp | ||
Atlético Madrid Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 6.5 pp | ||
Barcelona Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
Bayern Munich Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Bodø/Glimt Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
Borussia Dortmund Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Club Brugge Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.0 pp | ||
Como Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Fenerbahçe Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 8.1 pp | ||
Feyenoord Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.0 pp | ||
Galatasaray Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.4 pp | ||
Inter Milan Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
LASK Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp | ||
Lens Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 6.0 pp | ||
Lille Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Liverpool Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Manchester City Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Manchester United Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Napoli Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
Paris Saint-Germain Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
Porto Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 6.0 pp | ||
PSV Eindhoven Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
RB Leipzig Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Real Betis Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp | ||
Real Madrid Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Roma Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Sabah Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.8 pp | ||
Shakhtar Donetsk Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Slavia Prague Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Slovan Bratislava Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
Sporting CP Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
VfB Stuttgart Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.5 pp | ||
Viking Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.9 pp | ||
Villarreal Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp |
AEK Athens
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.0 pp
Arsenal
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Aston Villa
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.0 pp
Atlético Madrid
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.5 pp
Barcelona
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.0 pp
Bayern Munich
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Bodø/Glimt
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.4 pp
Borussia Dortmund
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Club Brugge
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.0 pp
Como
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Fenerbahçe
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 8.1 pp
Feyenoord
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.0 pp
Galatasaray
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.4 pp
Inter Milan
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
LASK
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.5 pp
Lens
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.0 pp
Lille
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Liverpool
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Manchester City
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
Manchester United
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Napoli
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.0 pp
Paris Saint-Germain
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.0 pp
Porto
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.0 pp
PSV Eindhoven
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.0 pp
RB Leipzig
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Real Betis
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.0 pp
Real Madrid
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Roma
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Sabah
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.8 pp
Shakhtar Donetsk
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.8 pp
Slavia Prague
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Slovan Bratislava
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.1 pp
Sporting CP
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
VfB Stuttgart
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.5 pp
Viking
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.9 pp
Villarreal
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.0 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.