Market comparison
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗11 outcomes · $12K reported volume
Observed 27s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Aurora Gaming Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 51.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 93.0% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Map 1 Winner Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 51.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 89.0% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Map 2 Winner Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 92.0% Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
O/U 2.5 Games Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
TheMongolz Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Aurora Gaming
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
51.0%
Bid 9.0% · Ask 93.0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Map 1 Winner
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
51.0%
Bid 13.0% · Ask 89.0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Map 2 Winner
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 8.0% · Ask 92.0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
O/U 2.5 Games
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
TheMongolz
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.