The Prediction Markets

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Starts in 33 hKickoff
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Match Winner 73.5%

Next is Map 2 Winner at 70.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Match Winner
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Match Winner
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Winner
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Winner
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Winner
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Winner
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Games
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Games
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Match Winner
  • Map 2 Winner
  • Map 1 Winner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage". Match Winner leads at 73.5%. Next is Map 2 Winner at 70.5%. $5K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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