Market comparison

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $215K reported volume

Observed 37s ago

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 37s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
100-119 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 100-119 Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% 100-119 Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
120-139 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 120-139 Open Kalshi ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% 120-139 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
140-159 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 140-159 Open Kalshi ↗	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% 140-159 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0 pp
160-179 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 160-179 Open Kalshi ↗	11.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0% 160-179 Open Polymarket ↗	10.5 pp
180-199 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 180-199 Open Kalshi ↗	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% 180-199 Open Polymarket ↗	14.0 pp
20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% <20 Open Polymarket ↗	—
20-39 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 20-39 Open Polymarket ↗	—
40-59 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 40-59 Open Polymarket ↗	—
60-79 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.0% 60-79 Open Polymarket ↗	—
80-99 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.6% Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.1% 80-99 Open Polymarket ↗	—
100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% <100 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
200-219 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 200-219 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
200+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	55.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0% 200+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
220-240 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 220-240 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
240 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% >240 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Apr 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	54.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 59.0% Before Apr 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 33.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 36.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

100-119

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

100-119

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

100-119

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

120-139

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

120-139

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

120-139

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

140-159

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

140-159

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

140-159

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.0 pp

160-179

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

160-179

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0%

160-179

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.5 pp

180-199

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

180-199

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

180-199

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 14.0 pp

20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

<20

Open Polymarket ↗

20-39

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

20-39

Open Polymarket ↗

40-59

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

40-59

Open Polymarket ↗

60-79

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid — · Ask 1.0%

60-79

Open Polymarket ↗

80-99

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.1%

80-99

Open Polymarket ↗

100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

<100

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

200-219

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

200-219

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

200+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

55.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0%

200+

Open Polymarket ↗

220-240

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

220-240

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

240

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

>240

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Apr 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

54.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 59.0%

Before Apr 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 33.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 36.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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