Market comparison
European Central Bank rate decision in December
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $37K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 17, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $4K reported volume
Observed 41s ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 17, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
- Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
- Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Cut 1-25bps Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
Cut more than 25bps Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
Hike 1-25bps Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp | ||
Hike more than 25bps Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
Maintain current rate Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp |
Cut 1-25bps
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.6 pp
Cut more than 25bps
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.3 pp
Hike 1-25bps
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.0 pp
Hike more than 25bps
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.3 pp
Maintain current rate
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.