Market comparison
Fearnley vs Carreno Busta
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $54K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Fearnley Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 65.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Open Polymarket ↗ | 1.5 pp | |
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 100.0% Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 Winner · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 100.0% Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 9.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 100.0% Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 8.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 99.5% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Game Spread +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 28.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 32.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 24.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 41.0% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 0.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 0.1% Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Pablo Carreno Busta Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Fearnley
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
65.5%
Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Open Polymarket ↗Price difference 1.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 Winner · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 9.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 8.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
99.5%
Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 48.0% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 48.0% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 35.0% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Game Spread +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
28.5%
Bid 25.0% · Ask 32.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
24.5%
Bid 8.0% · Ask 41.0%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0.0%
Bid 27.0% · Ask 0.1%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Pablo Carreno Busta
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.