Market comparison

Fed decision in Oct 2027?

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $165K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $70K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Fed decision in Oct 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Cut 25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Cut 25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Cut >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fed maintains rate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 85.0% Fed maintains rate Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hike >25bps Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Hike 25bps Open Kalshi ↗ 2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Hike >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hike-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.3% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.2% Hike-Pause-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hike-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.2% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2% Hike-Hike-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hike-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.4% Bid 4.7% · Ask 6.1% Hike-Hike-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hike-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.6% Hike-Pause-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pause-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Pause-Hike-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pause-Hike-Hike Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.3% Bid 3.9% · Ask 8.8% Pause-Pause-Hike Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pause-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0% Pause-Hike-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pause-Hike-Pause Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% Pause-Pause-Pause Open Polymarket ↗	—

Cut 25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fed maintains rate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 85.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike >25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.2%

Hike-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2%

Hike-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 4.7% · Ask 6.1%

Hike-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.6%

Hike-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Pause-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 3.9% · Ask 8.8%

Pause-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0%

Pause-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

Pause-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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