The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $14.6M reported volume

Observed 22s ago

Observed 2m ago

Observed 22s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $69K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Cut 25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

8.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 17.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fed maintains rate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 94.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

63.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

61.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 61.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike 25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

21.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 21.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.7%

Hike-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.5%

Hike-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.7% · Ask 6.4%

Hike-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.0%

Hike-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Pause-Hike-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.2%

Bid 7.5% · Ask 10.8%

Pause-Pause-Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0%

Pause-Hike-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause-Hike-Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

Pause-Pause-Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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