The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $1.5M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Observed 2m ago

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 9, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $406K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 9, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Cut 25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

25.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 25.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fed maintains rate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

59.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

85.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 85.0%

Fed maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike >25bps

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

11.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 24.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hike–Hike–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 77.0%

Hike–Pause–Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike–Hike–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 2.2%

Hike–Hike–Hike

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Hike–Pause–Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Hike–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.1%

Hike–Hike–Pause

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause–Pause–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Hike–Hike · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause–Pause–Hike

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Pause–Hike · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Pause–Pause · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Pause–Pause–Pause

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pause–Hike–Pause · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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