Market comparison

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

2 venues · 35 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

21 outcomes · $127K reported volume

Observed 18s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $26K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Polymarket reads it after the December FOMC meeting; Kalshi at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, so an emergency move in between splits them.
Kalshi rungs are strict 'Above X%'; Polymarket lists exact levels. Rungs are linked only where the 25 bp grid makes them identical; other rungs are derived sums.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Fed funds rate at end of 2027
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
6.0% Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Above 5.75% Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ≥6.0% Open Polymarket ↗	9.8 pp
2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7% ≤2.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
2.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.8% 2.75% Open Polymarket ↗	—
3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 16.9% 3.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 3.1% · Ask 6.0% 3.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
3.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.3% Bid 0.6% · Ask 7.9% 3.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
3.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.1% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.2% 3.75% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 19.0% 4.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 53.0% 4.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0% 4.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
4.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 28.0% 4.75% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0% 5.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.9% 5.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.3% Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.4% 5.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.9% Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.4% 5.75% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 1.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 2.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 2.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 2.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 2.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 94.0% Above 3.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 88.0% Above 3.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 3.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Above 3.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0% Above 4.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0% Above 4.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 44.0% Above 4.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 4.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Above 5.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 21.0% Above 5.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0% Above 5.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Above 6.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

6.0%

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Above 5.75%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

≥6.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.8 pp

2.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7%

≤2.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

2.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.8%

2.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 16.9%

3.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

3.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 6.0%

3.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

3.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 7.9%

3.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

3.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.2%

3.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 19.0%

4.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 53.0%

4.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0%

4.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 28.0%

4.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0%

5.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.9%

5.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.4%

5.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.4%

5.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 1.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.25%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.50%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.75%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 2.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 2.25%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 98.0%

Above 2.50%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 91.0%

Above 2.75%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 94.0%

Above 3.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 88.0%

Above 3.25%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 91.0%

Above 3.50%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Above 3.75%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0%

Above 4.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0%

Above 4.25%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 44.0%

Above 4.50%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 22.0%

Above 4.75%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Above 5.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 21.0%

Above 5.25%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0%

Above 5.50%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Above 6.00%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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