Market comparison

Fed rate cut by...?

2 venues · 48 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $3.8M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 29, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

35 outcomes · $1.9M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Fed rate cut by...?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Above 1.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 1.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 1.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 1.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 2.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 2.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 2.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 2.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.0% Above 3.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 88.0% Above 3.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 92.0% Above 3.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Above 3.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0% Above 4.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 72.0% Above 4.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0% Above 4.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 23.0% Above 4.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 5.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 37.0% Above 5.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 5.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 5.25% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 5.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0% Above 5.50% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 5.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 15.0% Above 5.75% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 6.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 16.0% Above 6.00% Open Kalshi ↗	—
April 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 37.0% April 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
April Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% April Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.4% Bid 5.5% · Ask 6.4% Cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
December 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.0% December 2026 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Exactly 0 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Exactly 0 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.6% Bid 16.8% · Ask 19.6% Exactly 1 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.9% Bid 64.4% · Ask 70.9% Exactly 2 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.2% Bid 10.1% · Ask 15.2% Exactly 3 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Exactly 4 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 5 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.2% Exactly 10 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 11 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 11 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 12 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.2% Exactly 12 Open Kalshi ↗	—
January 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.6% Bid 5.2% · Ask 8.0% January 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
July 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	51.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 79.0% July 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 49.0% June 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% January Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March 2027 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% March 2027 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% March Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% October 2026 Meeting Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 2026 Meeting Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 2026 Meeting · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Above 1.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.00%

Fed rate cut by...?

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.50%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.75%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.50%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.75%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.50%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.75%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 4.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 4.25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 4.50%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 4.75%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 5.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 5.25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 5.50%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 5.75%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 6.00%

Polymarket

Kalshi

April 2027 Meeting

Polymarket

Kalshi

April Meeting

Polymarket

Kalshi

Cuts

Polymarket

Kalshi

December 2026 Meeting

Polymarket

Kalshi

Exactly 0

Polymarket