Market comparison

Hamilton mayoral election winner?

2 venues · 13 outcome rows · 9 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

36 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Hamilton mayoral election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Andrea Horwath Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	23.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0% Andrea Horwath Open Polymarket ↗	23.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 23.0% Andrea Horwath Open Kalshi ↗	0.0 pp
Ejaz Butt Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Ejaz Butt Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Ejaz Butt Open Kalshi ↗	4.9 pp
Keanin Loomis Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	49.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 59.0% Keanin Loomis Open Polymarket ↗	64.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 65.0% Keanin Loomis Open Kalshi ↗	15.0 pp
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Nathalie Xian Yi Yan Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Nathalie Xian Yi Yan Open Kalshi ↗	2.4 pp
Pamela Mitchell Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Pamela Mitchell Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Pamela Mitchell Open Kalshi ↗	1.6 pp
Paul Fromm Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Paul Fromm Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Paul Fromm Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
Rob Cooper Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	17.3% Bid 13.5% · Ask 21.0% Rob Cooper Open Polymarket ↗	13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0% Rob Cooper Open Kalshi ↗	4.2 pp
Sasha Austin Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Sasha Austin Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Sasha Austin Open Kalshi ↗	2.3 pp
Scarlett Gillespie Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Scarlett Gillespie Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Scarlett Gillespie Open Kalshi ↗	2.4 pp
David Harrison Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% David Harrison Open Kalshi ↗	—
David Mark Cherkewski Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% David Mark Cherkewski Open Kalshi ↗	—
Erin Janus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Erin Janus Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kevin Walker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Kevin Walker Open Kalshi ↗	—

Andrea Horwath

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0%

Andrea Horwath

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 23.0%

Andrea Horwath

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Ejaz Butt

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Ejaz Butt

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Ejaz Butt

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.9 pp

Keanin Loomis

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 59.0%

Keanin Loomis

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 65.0%

Keanin Loomis

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 15.0 pp

Nathalie Xian Yi Yan

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Nathalie Xian Yi Yan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Nathalie Xian Yi Yan

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.4 pp

Pamela Mitchell

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Pamela Mitchell

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Pamela Mitchell

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.6 pp

Paul Fromm

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Paul Fromm

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Paul Fromm

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Rob Cooper

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

17.3%

Bid 13.5% · Ask 21.0%

Rob Cooper

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0%

Rob Cooper

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.2 pp

Sasha Austin

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Sasha Austin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Sasha Austin

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.3 pp

Scarlett Gillespie

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Scarlett Gillespie

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Scarlett Gillespie

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.4 pp

David Harrison

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

David Harrison

Open Kalshi ↗

David Mark Cherkewski

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

David Mark Cherkewski

Open Kalshi ↗

Erin Janus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Erin Janus

Open Kalshi ↗

Kevin Walker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Kevin Walker

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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