Market comparison

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

34 outcomes · $20K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bill Harvey Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	20.5% Bid 18.2% · Ask 22.8% Bill Harvey Open Polymarket ↗	19.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 25.0% Bill Harvey Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Harvey Lennon Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	6.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 11.9% Harvey Lennon Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Harvey Lennon Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
John Kelly Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	36.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0% John Kelly Open Polymarket ↗	35.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 40.0% John Kelly Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Louise Bloomfield Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	8.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.9% Louise Bloomfield Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Louise Bloomfield Open Kalshi ↗	5.5 pp
Marti Zucco Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	10.8% Bid 2.7% · Ask 19.0% Marti Zucco Open Polymarket ↗	12.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Marti Zucco Open Kalshi ↗	1.1 pp
Mike Dutta Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	3.5% Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.7% Mike Dutta Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Mike Dutta Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Ryan Posselt Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.9% Bid 1.2% · Ask 8.6% Ryan Posselt Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Ryan Posselt Open Kalshi ↗	2.1 pp
Charles Wooley Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 19.0% Charles Wooley Open Kalshi ↗	—
Jack McShane Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Jack McShane Open Kalshi ↗	—
Rifatul Bari Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Rifatul Bari Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tiffany Ashdown Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Tiffany Ashdown Open Kalshi ↗	—

Bill Harvey

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 18.2% · Ask 22.8%

Bill Harvey

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 25.0%

Bill Harvey

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Harvey Lennon

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 11.9%

Harvey Lennon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Harvey Lennon

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

John Kelly

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

36.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0%

John Kelly

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 40.0%

John Kelly

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Louise Bloomfield

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.9%

Louise Bloomfield

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Louise Bloomfield

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Marti Zucco

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

10.8%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 19.0%

Marti Zucco

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Marti Zucco

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Mike Dutta

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.7%

Mike Dutta

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Mike Dutta

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Ryan Posselt

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 8.6%

Ryan Posselt

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Ryan Posselt

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Charles Wooley

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 19.0%

Charles Wooley

Open Kalshi ↗

Jack McShane

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Jack McShane

Open Kalshi ↗

Rifatul Bari

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Rifatul Bari

Open Kalshi ↗

Tiffany Ashdown

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Tiffany Ashdown

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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