Market comparison

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

2 venues · 31 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $31K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
↑ 5.2 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.2% or above Open Kalshi ↗	4.7% Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.3% 5.20% Open Polymarket ↗	2.7 pp
↑ 5.3 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 5.3% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.7% Bid 1.6% · Ask 5.8% 5.30% Open Polymarket ↗	2.7 pp
↑ 5.08 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	14.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 14.0% 5.08% or above Open Kalshi ↗	13.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 23.0% 5.08% Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 5.11 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0% 5.11% or above Open Kalshi ↗	8.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% 5.11% Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
↑ 5.14 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 5.14% or above Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% 5.14% Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 5.17 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% 5.17% or above Open Kalshi ↗	4.2% Bid 1.5% · Ask 6.8% 5.17% Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
↑ 5.25 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗	3.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9% 5.25% Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 5.35 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.35% or above Open Kalshi ↗	2.8% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.5% 5.35% Open Polymarket ↗	1.8 pp
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.07% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% 5.07% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.09% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0% 5.09% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.12% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.12% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.13% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.13% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.16% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.16% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.18% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 5.18% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.19% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% 5.19% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.21% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.21% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.22% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.22% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.23% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.23% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.24% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.24% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.26% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 5.26% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.27% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% 5.27% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.28% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0% 5.28% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.29% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 5.29% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.31% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0% 5.31% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.32% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0% 5.32% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.33% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 5.33% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.34% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.34% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.36% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 5.36% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 1.9% · Ask 7.8% 5.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—

↑ 5.2

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.2% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.3%

5.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

↑ 5.3

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

5.3% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 5.8%

5.30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

↑ 5.08

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 14.0%

5.08% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 23.0%

5.08%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 5.11

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0%

5.11% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0%

5.11%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

↑ 5.14

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

5.14% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0%

5.14%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 5.17

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

5.17% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 6.8%

5.17%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

↑ 5.25

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9%

5.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 5.35

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.35% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.5%

5.35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.07% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

5.07% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.09% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 13.0%

5.09% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.12% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.12% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.13% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.13% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.16% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.16% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.18% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

5.18% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.19% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

5.19% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.21% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.21% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.22% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.22% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.23% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.23% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.24% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.24% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.26% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

5.26% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.27% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

5.27% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.28% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0%

5.28% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.29% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

5.29% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.31% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0%

5.31% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.32% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 11.0%

5.32% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.33% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

5.33% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.34% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.34% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.36% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

5.36% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 7.8%

5.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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