Market comparison

How high will BTC get in November?

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 16 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $2.1M reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $475K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will BTC get in November?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 80,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	65.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0% ↑ 80,000 Open Polymarket ↗	66.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0% Above $80,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 82,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	45.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0% ↑ 82,500 Open Polymarket ↗	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 45.0% Above $82,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 85,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	30.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% ↑ 85,000 Open Polymarket ↗	31.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% Above $85,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 87,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	18.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% ↑ 87,500 Open Polymarket ↗	21.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% Above $87,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
↑ 90,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	11.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% ↑ 90,000 Open Polymarket ↗	16.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% Above $90,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	4.5 pp
↑ 92,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% ↑ 92,500 Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Above $92,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
↑ 95,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% ↑ 95,000 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Above $95,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 97,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.9% Bid 2.7% · Ask 3.0% ↑ 97,500 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Above $97,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.2 pp
↓ 57,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.7% Bid 4.6% · Ask 4.7% ↓ 57,500 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Below $57,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.4 pp
↓ 60,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% ↓ 60,000 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Below $60,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
↓ 62,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	11.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% ↓ 62,500 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0% Below $62,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
↓ 65,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	17.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% ↓ 65,000 Open Polymarket ↗	15.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0% Below $65,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
↓ 67,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	25.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% ↓ 67,500 Open Polymarket ↗	25.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% Below $67,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↓ 70,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	38.5% Bid 38.0% · Ask 39.0% ↓ 70,000 Open Polymarket ↗	39.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 43.0% Below $70,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↓ 72,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	58.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 59.0% ↓ 72,500 Open Polymarket ↗	60.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0% Below $72,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↓ 75,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	80.5% Bid 80.0% · Ask 81.0% ↓ 75,000 Open Polymarket ↗	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Below $75,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
55,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 3.1% ↓ 55,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
77,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 77,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 88.5% Bid 88.4% · Ask 88.7% ↑ 77,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
100,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.0% ↑ 100,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

↑ 80,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

65.5%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0%

↑ 80,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0%

Above $80,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 82,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

↑ 82,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 45.0%

Above $82,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 85,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

↑ 85,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

Above $85,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 87,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0%

↑ 87,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Above $87,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

↑ 90,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

↑ 90,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

Above $90,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

↑ 92,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

↑ 92,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

Above $92,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

↑ 95,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

↑ 95,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Above $95,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 97,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 3.0%

↑ 97,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above $97,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.2 pp

↓ 57,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 4.7%

↓ 57,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0%

Below $57,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

↓ 60,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

↓ 60,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

Below $60,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

↓ 62,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

↓ 62,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0%

Below $62,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

↓ 65,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

↓ 65,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0%

Below $65,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

↓ 67,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

↓ 67,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

Below $67,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↓ 70,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

38.5%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 39.0%

↓ 70,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 43.0%

Below $70,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↓ 72,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

58.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 59.0%

↓ 72,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0%

Below $72,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↓ 75,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

80.5%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 81.0%

↓ 75,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Below $75,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

55,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 3.1%

↓ 55,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

77,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 77,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

88.5%

Bid 88.4% · Ask 88.7%

↑ 77,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

100,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.0%

↑ 100,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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