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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
77,500 91.6%
Next is 75,000 at 80.9%. The venues differ most on 90,000 (Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 17%), a 4.5-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 35 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
77,50091.6%91.6%90.7¢ bid, 92.5¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed92.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)77,50091.6%Polymarket 91.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
77,500
91.6%
91.6%
90.7¢ bid, 92.5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
92.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
77,500
91.6%
Polymarket 91.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 77,500
- Last price
- 91.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 92.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $8K
75,000Kalshi: “Below $75,000.00”80.9%80.5%80¢ bid, 81¢ asklive, 2 h ago82%82¢ bid, 83¢ asklive, 2 h ago81¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $123 (1.23x)75,00080.9%Polymarket 80.5%live, 2 h agoKalshi 82%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
75,000
Kalshi: “Below $75,000.00”
80.9%
80.5%
80¢ bid, 81¢ ask
live, 2 h ago
82%
82¢ bid, 83¢ ask
live, 2 h ago
81¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
75,000
80.9%
Polymarket 80.5%live, 2 h agoKalshi 82%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 75,000
- Price
- 80.5%
- As of
- Live feed, 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $149K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $75,000.00
- Price
- 82%
- As of
- Live feed, 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $17K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
80,000Kalshi: “Above $80,000.00”65.6%65.5%65¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 2 h ago66%66¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 2 h ago66¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $152 (1.52x)80,00065.6%Polymarket 65.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
80,000
Kalshi: “Above $80,000.00”
65.6%
65.5%
65¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
66%
66¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
66¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
80,000
65.6%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80,000
- Last price
- 65.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $428K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $80,000.00
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $20K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
72,500Kalshi: “Below $72,500.00”57.1%56.5%56¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 2 h ago59%59¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 2 h ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)72,50057.1%Polymarket 56.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 59%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
72,500
Kalshi: “Below $72,500.00”
57.1%
56.5%
56¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
59%
59¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
72,500
57.1%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 59%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 72,500
- Last price
- 56.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $55K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $72,500.00
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $5K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
82,500Kalshi: “Above $82,500.00”46.7%46.5%46¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 2 h ago47%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 2 h ago47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)82,50046.7%Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 47%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
82,500
Kalshi: “Above $82,500.00”
46.7%
46.5%
46¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
47%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
82,500
46.7%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 47%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 82,500
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $30K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $82,500.00
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $15K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
70,000Kalshi: “Below $70,000.00”39.1%39.5%39¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 2 h ago38%37¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 2 h ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)70,00039.1%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 38%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
70,000
Kalshi: “Below $70,000.00”
39.1%
39.5%
39¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
38%
37¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
70,000
39.1%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 38%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70,000
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $63K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $70,000.00
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $5K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
85,000Kalshi: “Above $85,000.00”30.7%30.5%30¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 2 h ago31%31¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 2 h ago31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)85,00030.7%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
85,000
Kalshi: “Above $85,000.00”
30.7%
30.5%
30¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
31%
31¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
85,000
30.7%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 85,000
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $22K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $85,000.00
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $11K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
67,500Kalshi: “Below $67,500.00”25.4%25.5%25¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 h ago25%24¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 h ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)67,50025.4%Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
67,500
Kalshi: “Below $67,500.00”
25.4%
25.5%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
25%
24¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
67,500
25.4%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 67,500
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $75K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $67,500.00
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $20K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
87,500Kalshi: “Above $87,500.00”21.2%20.5%20¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 2 h ago22%21¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 h ago21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)87,50021.2%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
87,500
Kalshi: “Above $87,500.00”
21.2%
20.5%
20¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
22%
21¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
87,500
21.2%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 87,500
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $87,500.00
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $14K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
65,000Kalshi: “Below $65,000.00”17%17.5%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 2 h ago16%15¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 2 h ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)65,00017%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
65,000
Kalshi: “Below $65,000.00”
17%
17.5%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
16%
15¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
65,000
17%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 65,000
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $99K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $65,000.00
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $45K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
90,000Kalshi: “Above $90,000.00”15.8%12.5%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 2 h ago17%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 2 h ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)90,00015.8%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
90,000
Kalshi: “Above $90,000.00”
15.8%
12.5%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
17%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
90,000
15.8%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 90,000
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $39K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $90,000.00
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $107K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
62,500Kalshi: “Below $62,500.00”10.9%11.5%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 2 h ago9%9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 2 h ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)62,50010.9%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
62,500
Kalshi: “Below $62,500.00”
10.9%
11.5%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
9%
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
62,500
10.9%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 62,500
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $111K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $62,500.00
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $27K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
92,500Kalshi: “Above $92,500.00”9.4%7.5%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 h ago10%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 2 h ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)92,5009.4%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
92,500
Kalshi: “Above $92,500.00”
9.4%
7.5%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
10%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
92,500
9.4%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 92,500
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $18K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $92,500.00
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $103K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
60,000Kalshi: “Below $60,000.00”7.9%8.5%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 h ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)60,0007.9%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
60,000
Kalshi: “Below $60,000.00”
7.9%
8.5%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
60,000
7.9%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60,000
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $148K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $60,000.00
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $553
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
95,000Kalshi: “Above $95,000.00”6.1%4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)95,0006.1%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
95,000
Kalshi: “Above $95,000.00”
6.1%
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
95,000
6.1%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 95,000
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $26K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $95,000.00
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $43K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
57,500Kalshi: “Below $57,500.00”4.7%4.7%4.6¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5%3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago4.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)57,5004.7%Polymarket 4.7%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
57,500
Kalshi: “Below $57,500.00”
4.7%
4.7%
4.6¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5%
3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
4.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
57,500
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 57,500
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $266K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $57,500.00
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
97,500Kalshi: “Above $97,500.00”4.3%3.1%3¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago3.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)97,5004.3%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
97,500
Kalshi: “Above $97,500.00”
4.3%
3.1%
3¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
3.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
97,500
4.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 97,500
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $19K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $97,500.00
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $35K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
55,0003.2%3.2%3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed3.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)55,0003.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
55,000
3.2%
3.2%
3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
3.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
55,000
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 55,000
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $50K
100,0002.1%2.1%2¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed2.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)100,0002.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
100,000
2.1%
2.1%
2¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
2.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
100,000
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100,000
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $53K
Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads
Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules
Where they differ
- Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
- Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
- Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
- Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
- Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
- Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 77,500
- 75,000
- 80,000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 77,500 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will BTC get in November?". 77,500 leads at 91.6%. Next is 75,000 at 80.9%. $2.6M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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