Market comparison

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

2 venues · 46 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

40 outcomes · $44K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
↓ 4.54 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	32.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 45.0% 4.54% or below Open Kalshi ↗	20.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 24.0% Below 4.55% Open Polymarket ↗	11.5 pp
↓ 4.59 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	39.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 58.0% 4.59% or below Open Kalshi ↗	33.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0% Below 4.60% Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
↓ 4.63 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	65.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 65.0% 4.63% or below Open Kalshi ↗	67.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 91.0% Below 4.64% Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
4.6% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 62.0% 4.6% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.7% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.7% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.8% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.8% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.9% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.9% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.52% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 41.0% 4.52% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.53% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 43.0% 4.53% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.55% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 48.0% 4.55% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.56% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 51.0% 4.56% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.57% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 53.0% 4.57% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.58% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 56.0% 4.58% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.61% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	52.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 65.0% 4.61% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.62% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.62% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.64% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.64% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.65% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.65% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.66% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.66% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.67% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.67% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.68% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.68% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.69% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.69% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.71% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.71% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.72% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.72% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.73% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.73% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.74% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.74% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.75% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.75% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.76% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.76% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.77% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	81.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.77% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.78% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.78% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.79% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.79% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.81% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.81% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.82% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.82% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.83% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.83% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.84% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.84% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.85% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.85% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.86% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.86% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.87% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.87% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.88% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.88% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.89% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.89% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.91% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.91% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 4.40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 16.0% Below 4.40% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 17.0% Below 4.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 23.0% Below 4.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.67% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.67% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.70% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.73% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.73% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

↓ 4.54

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 45.0%

4.54% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 24.0%

Below 4.55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.5 pp

↓ 4.59

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 58.0%

4.59% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0%

Below 4.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

↓ 4.63

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 65.0%

4.63% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

67.5%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 91.0%

Below 4.64%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

4.6% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 62.0%

4.6% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.7% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.7% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.8% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.8% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.9% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.9% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.52% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 41.0%

4.52% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.53% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 43.0%

4.53% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.55% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 48.0%

4.55% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.56% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 51.0%

4.56% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.57% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

39.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 53.0%

4.57% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.58% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 56.0%

4.58% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.61% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

52.5%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 65.0%

4.61% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.62% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.62% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.64% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.64% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.65% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.65% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.66% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.66% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.67% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.67% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.68% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.68% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.69% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.69% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.71% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.71% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.72% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.72% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.73% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.73% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.74% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.74% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.75% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.75% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.76% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.76% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.77% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.77% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.78% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.78% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.79% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.79% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.81% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.81% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.82% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.82% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.83% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.83% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.84% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.84% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.85% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.85% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.86% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.86% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.87% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.87% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.88% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.88% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.89% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.89% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.91% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.91% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 4.40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 16.0%

Below 4.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 17.0%

Below 4.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 23.0%

Below 4.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.67%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.67% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.70% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.73%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.73% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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