Market comparison

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

2 venues · 55 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

47 outcomes · $1.0M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Observed 39s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $162K reported volume

Observed 39s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5,900 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.9% 5,900 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.1% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.01% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.01% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.02% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.02% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.2% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.3% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.03% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.03% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.04% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.4% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.4% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 57.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 29.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 74.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.05% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.05% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.06% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.06% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.07% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.07% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.08% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.08% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.09% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.09% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.11% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.11% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.12% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.12% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.13% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.13% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.14% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.14% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 55.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.15% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.16% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.16% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.17% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.17% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.18% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.18% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.19% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.19% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.21% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.21% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.22% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.22% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.23% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.23% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.24% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.24% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.25% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.35% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	46.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 46.0% 5.35% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.45% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 91.0% 5.45% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5% or above · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,000 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.4% Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4% 6,000 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,100 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.7% Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.7% 6,100 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,200 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.4% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4% 6,200 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,300 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.2% Bid 8.2% · Ask 10.4% 6,300 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,400 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0% 6,400 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,500 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,500 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,600 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,600 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 4.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 3.4% · Ask 5.5% Below 4.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.4% Bid 4.9% · Ask 5.9% Below 4.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.1% Bid 3.3% · Ask 4.9% Below 4.20% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.2% Bid 14.5% · Ask 17.9% Below 4.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.6% Bid 19.7% · Ask 21.6% Below 4.30% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Below 4.35% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Below 4.40% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0% Below 4.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0% Below 4.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.5% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% Below 4.55% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Below 4.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.5% Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0% Below 4.65% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Below 4.70% Open Polymarket ↗	—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5,900 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.9%

5,900 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.1% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.01% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.01% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.02% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.02% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.2% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.3% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.03% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.03% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.04% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.4% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.4% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 57.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

29.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 74.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.05% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.05% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.06% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.06% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.07% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.07% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.08% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.08% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.09% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.09% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.11% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.11% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.12% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.12% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.13% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.13% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.14% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.14% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 45.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

55.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.15% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.16% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.16% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.17% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.17% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.18% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.18% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.19% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.19% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.21% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.21% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.22% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.22% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.23% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.23% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.24% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.24% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.25% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.35% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 46.0%

5.35% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.45% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 91.0%

5.45% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 65.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5% or above · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,000 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4%

6,000 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,100 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.7%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.7%

6,100 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,200 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.4%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4%

6,200 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,300 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.2%

Bid 8.2% · Ask 10.4%

6,300 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,400 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0%

6,400 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,500 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,500 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,600 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,600 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 4.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 3.4% · Ask 5.5%

Below 4.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 4.9% · Ask 5.9%

Below 4.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 3.3% · Ask 4.9%

Below 4.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.2%

Bid 14.5% · Ask 17.9%

Below 4.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.6%

Bid 19.7% · Ask 21.6%

Below 4.30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Below 4.35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Below 4.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0%

Below 4.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0%

Below 4.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0%

Below 4.55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0%

Below 4.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

62.5%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0%

Below 4.65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Below 4.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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