Market comparison

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

2 venues · 39 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $33K reported volume

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $20K reported volume

Observed 7s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
4.8% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.8% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.9% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.9% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.76% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 99.0% 4.76% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.77% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.77% or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.78% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.78% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.79% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.79% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.81% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.81% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.82% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.82% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.83% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.83% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.84% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.84% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.85% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.85% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.86% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.86% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.87% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.87% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.88% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.88% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.89% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.89% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.91% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.91% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.92% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.92% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.93% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.93% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.94% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.94% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.95% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.95% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.96% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	91.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.96% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.97% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.97% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.98% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.98% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.99% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 4.99% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.01% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.01% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.02% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.02% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.03% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.03% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.04% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.04% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.05% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5.05% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5% or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5% or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 4.65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 41.0% Below 4.65% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 63.0% Below 4.70% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 72.0% Below 4.75% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.80% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.83% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.83% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.86% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.86% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.89% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.89% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.92% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 91.6% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.92% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.95% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

4.8% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.8% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.9% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.9% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.76% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 99.0%

4.76% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.77% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.77% or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.78% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.78% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.79% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.79% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.81% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.81% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.82% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.82% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.83% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.83% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.84% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.84% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.85% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.85% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.86% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.86% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.87% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.87% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.88% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.88% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.89% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.89% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.91% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.91% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.92% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.92% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.93% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.93% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.94% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.94% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.95% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.95% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.96% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

91.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.96% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.97% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.97% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.98% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.98% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.99% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

4.99% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.01% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.01% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.02% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.02% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.03% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.03% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.04% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.04% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.05% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5.05% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5% or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5% or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 4.65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 41.0%

Below 4.65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 63.0%

Below 4.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 72.0%

Below 4.75%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.80% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.83%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.83% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.86%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.86% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.89%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.89% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.92%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 91.6% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.92% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.95% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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