Market comparison

How low will BTC get in October?

2 venues · 22 outcome rows · 14 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

38 outcomes · $9.8M reported volume

Observed 19s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $2.1M reported volume

Observed 19s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will BTC get in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 87,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	19.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% ↑ 87,500 Open Polymarket ↗	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Above $87,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
↑ 90,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	8.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% ↑ 90,000 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Above $90,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↑ 92,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	3.9% Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.2% ↑ 92,500 Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Above $92,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.2 pp
↑ 95,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.7% Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.9% ↑ 95,000 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $95,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
↑ 97,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.3% Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3% ↑ 97,500 Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $97,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
↑ 100,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0% ↑ 100,000 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $100,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.1 pp
↑ 102,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0% ↑ 102,500 Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above $102,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
↓ 62,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 0.8% ↓ 62,500 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Below $62,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.3 pp
↓ 65,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% ↓ 65,000 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Below $65,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
↓ 67,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.8% Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.9% ↓ 67,500 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Below $67,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.3 pp
↓ 70,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.3% Bid 3.9% · Ask 4.8% ↓ 70,000 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Below $70,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
↓ 72,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	7.6% Bid 7.6% · Ask 7.7% ↓ 72,500 Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% Below $72,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	3.4 pp
↓ 75,000 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	18.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% ↓ 75,000 Open Polymarket ↗	18.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0% Below $75,000.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
↓ 77,500 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	37.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0% ↓ 77,500 Open Polymarket ↗	37.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0% Below $77,500.00 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
60,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5% ↓ 60,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
80,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 80,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 72.5% Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0% ↓ 80,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
82,500 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 82,500 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 80.5% Bid 80.0% · Ask 81.0% ↑ 82,500 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
85,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 85,000 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0% ↑ 85,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
105,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7% ↑ 105,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
150,000 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% ↑ 150,000 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $85,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Above $85,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $80,000.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $80,000.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 87,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

19.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0%

↑ 87,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Above $87,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

↑ 90,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

↑ 90,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above $90,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↑ 92,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.2%

↑ 92,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above $92,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.2 pp

↑ 95,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.9%

↑ 95,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $95,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

↑ 97,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.3%

↑ 97,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $97,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

↑ 100,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0%

↑ 100,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $100,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

↑ 102,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.0%

↑ 102,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above $102,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

↓ 62,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 0.8%

↓ 62,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Below $62,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

↓ 65,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

↓ 65,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Below $65,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

↓ 67,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 1.9%

↓ 67,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Below $67,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.3 pp

↓ 70,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 3.9% · Ask 4.8%

↓ 70,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Below $70,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

↓ 72,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

7.6%

Bid 7.6% · Ask 7.7%

↓ 72,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0%

Below $72,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

↓ 75,000

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0%

↓ 75,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0%

Below $75,000.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

↓ 77,500

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

↓ 77,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

Below $77,500.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

60,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5%

↓ 60,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

80,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 80,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

72.5%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0%

↓ 80,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

82,500

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 82,500 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

80.5%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 81.0%

↑ 82,500

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

85,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 85,000 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

43.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0%

↑ 85,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

105,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7%

↑ 105,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

150,000

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

↑ 150,000

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $85,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above $85,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $80,000.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $80,000.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets