The Prediction Markets

How low will BTC get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$11.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

82,500 80.5%

Next is 80,000 at 72.5%. The venues differ most on 72,500 (Polymarket 7.7%, Kalshi 11%), a 3.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 34 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
82,500
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,500
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Polymarket
85,000
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$386K
Trade this on Polymarket
77,500
37.4%
Polymarket 37.5%live, 36s agoKalshi 37%live, 35s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
77,500
Price
37.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$604K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $77,500.00
Price
37%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 38¢.

87,500Arb
19%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
87,500
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$839K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $87,500.00
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$367K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 18¢ and selling on Polymarket at 19¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

75,000
18.4%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$422K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75,000.00
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

90,000
8.7%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$542K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90,000.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$437K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

72,500
8.5%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,500
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72,500.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.7¢.

92,500
4.3%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,500
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$507K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $92,500.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$371K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

70,000
4.3%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$276K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70,000.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Show 10 more outcomes
67,500Arb
2.3%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
67,500
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$304K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67,500.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

95,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$375K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $95,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

65,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$574K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.1¢.

100,000
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$408K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

97,500
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
97,500
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$285K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

62,500
1.1%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,500
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$625K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

102,500
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
102,500
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$329K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

105,000
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
105,000
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$642K
Trade this on Polymarket
60,000
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$563K
Trade this on Polymarket
150,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
150,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$626K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 87,500 on Kalshi at 18¢, sell on Polymarket at 19¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 82,500
  • 80,000
  • 85,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 82,500 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will BTC get in October?". 82,500 leads at 80.5%. Next is 80,000 at 72.5%. $11.9M has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More crypto markets

See all crypto markets