Market comparison

How low will SOL get in October?

2 venues · 29 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $469K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $85K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 30s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will SOL get in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
↑ 130 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	4.1% Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.0% ↑ 130 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Above $130.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.9 pp
↑ 140 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.9% Bid 1.7% · Ask 2.2% ↑ 140 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above $140.00 Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
↑ 150 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.3% ↑ 150 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Above $150.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.9 pp
↓ 80 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	2.5% Bid 2.1% · Ask 2.8% ↓ 80 Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Below $80.00 Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
↓ 90 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	11.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0% ↓ 90 Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0% Below $90.00 Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
↓ 100 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	61.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0% ↓ 100 Open Polymarket ↗	52.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 58.0% Below $100.00 Open Kalshi ↗	9.0 pp
20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% ↓ 20 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ↓ 30 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ↓ 40 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% ↓ 50 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
60 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 1.4% · Ask 1.5% ↓ 60 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
70 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.7% · Ask 2.5% ↓ 70 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
110 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 110 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 110 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 110 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 110 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 110 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 52.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% ↑ 110 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
120 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↑ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% ↓ 120 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 12.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% ↑ 120 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
160 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.6% ↑ 160 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
170 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% ↑ 170 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
180 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1% ↑ 180 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
190 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% ↑ 190 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
200 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% ↑ 200 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above $120.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Above $120.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $125.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Above $125.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $135.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Above $135.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $145.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Above $145.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above $155.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Above $155.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $75.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Below $75.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $85.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Below $85.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $95.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 28.0% Below $95.00 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $105.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $105.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below $110.00 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Below $110.00 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

↑ 130

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.0%

↑ 130

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Above $130.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

↑ 140

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 2.2%

↑ 140

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above $140.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

↑ 150

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.3%

↑ 150

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above $150.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.9 pp

↓ 80

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 2.8%

↓ 80

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Below $80.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

↓ 90

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0%

↓ 90

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0%

Below $90.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

↓ 100

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

61.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0%

↓ 100

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 58.0%

Below $100.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 9.0 pp

20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

↓ 20

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

↓ 30

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

40

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

↓ 40

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

50

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

↓ 50

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

60

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 1.5%

↓ 60

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

70

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 2.5%

↓ 70

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

110

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 110 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 110 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 110 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 110 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 110 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

52.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

↑ 110

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

120

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↑ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

↓ 120 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

12.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

↑ 120

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

160

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.6%

↑ 160

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

170

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

↑ 170

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

180

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1%

↑ 180

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

190

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

↑ 190

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

200

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

↑ 200

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above $120.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above $120.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $125.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above $125.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $135.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Above $135.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $145.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above $145.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Above $155.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above $155.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $75.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Below $75.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $85.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Below $85.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $95.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 28.0%

Below $95.00

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $105.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $105.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Below $110.00

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Below $110.00 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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