Market comparison
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $72K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗4 outcomes · $60K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
2 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 35.5 pp | ||
3 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 18.8 pp | ||
4 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 6.0 pp | ||
5+ Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 5.5 pp | ||
0 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
1 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
2
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 35.5 pp
3
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 18.8 pp
4
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.0 pp
5+
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.5 pp
0
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
1
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.