Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?
2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $34K reported volume
Observed 56s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $18K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
<3 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.0 pp | ||
3 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
4 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
5 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
6 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 8.6 pp | ||
7 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 7 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
<3
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.0 pp
3
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
4
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.0 pp
5
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
6
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 8.6 pp
7
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 7
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.