Market comparison

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

2 venues · 38 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $343K reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
1 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 1 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 2 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% 3 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	46.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 46.0% 4 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 50.0% 5 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
10 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 10 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% <100 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
100-119 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 100-119 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
120-139 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.6% Bid 6.4% · Ask 10.9% 120-139 Open Polymarket ↗	—
140-159 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.1% Bid 56.1% · Ask 78.1% 140-159 Open Polymarket ↗	—
160-179 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.9% · Ask 3.0% 160-179 Open Polymarket ↗	—
180-199 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.6% Bid 3.6% · Ask 7.6% 180-199 Open Polymarket ↗	—
200 or more Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.9% 200 or more Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0% Above 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 82.0% Above 10 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 11 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 11 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 12 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 12 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 13 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 13 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 14 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 14 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 15 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 16 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 120 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 120 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 140 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	72.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0% Above 140 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 145 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Above 145 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 150 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0% Above 150 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 160 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Above 160 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 170 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 170 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 180 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 180 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 190 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above 190 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 200 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 200 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 210 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 210 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

1 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

1 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 46.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 50.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

10 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

10 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

<100 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

100-119

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

100-119 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

120-139

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.6%

Bid 6.4% · Ask 10.9%

120-139

Open Polymarket ↗

140-159

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

67.1%

Bid 56.1% · Ask 78.1%

140-159

Open Polymarket ↗

160-179

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 3.0%

160-179

Open Polymarket ↗

180-199

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.6%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 7.6%

180-199

Open Polymarket ↗

200 or more

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.9%

200 or more

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 6

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 7

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 8

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0%

Above 9

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 82.0%

Above 10

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 11

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 11

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 12

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 12

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 13

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 13

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 14

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 14

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 15

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 15

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 16

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 120

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 120

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 140

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0%

Above 140

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 145

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

Above 145

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 150

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0%

Above 150

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 160

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above 160

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 170

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 170

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 180

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 180

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 190

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above 190

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 200

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above 200

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 210

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above 210

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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