Market comparison
How strong will Vance be?
2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $3K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 2, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 59s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 5, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi lists cumulative rungs ('Category 3 or above'); Polymarket lists exact peak categories. Only Category 5 is the same contract; other Kalshi rungs equal sums of Polymarket buckets.
- Polymarket uses the category in NHC public advisories; Kalshi uses maximum sustained winds.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Category 5 or above Outcome ranges differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 2.0 pp | ||
Category 1 or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 1 or weaker Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 2 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 2 or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 3 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 3 or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 4 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Category 4 or above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Category 5 or above
Outcome ranges differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.0 pp
Category 1 or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Category 1 or weaker
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Category 2
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Category 2 or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Category 3
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Category 3 or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Category 4
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Category 4 or above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.