Market comparison

Hurricane Vance category?

2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 2, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 5, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi lists cumulative rungs ('Category 3 or above'); Polymarket lists exact peak categories. Only Category 5 is the same contract; other Kalshi rungs equal sums of Polymarket buckets.
Polymarket uses the category in NHC public advisories; Kalshi uses maximum sustained winds.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Hurricane Vance category?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Category 5 or above Outcome ranges differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Category 5 or above Open Kalshi ↗	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Category 5 Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Category 1 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.5% Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0% Category 1 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Category 1 or weaker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% Category 1 or weaker Open Polymarket ↗	—
Category 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0% Category 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Category 2 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.0% Category 2 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Category 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 45.0% Category 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Category 3 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	78.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 81.0% Category 3 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Category 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 30.0% Category 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Category 4 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 40.0% Category 4 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Category 5 or above

Outcome ranges differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0%

Category 5 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Category 5

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Category 1 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.5%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0%

Category 1 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Category 1 or weaker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

Category 1 or weaker

Open Polymarket ↗

Category 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0%

Category 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Category 2 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.0%

Category 2 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Category 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 45.0%

Category 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Category 3 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 81.0%

Category 3 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Category 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 30.0%

Category 4

Open Polymarket ↗

Category 4 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 40.0%

Category 4 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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