Market comparison

Illinois Senate margin of victory

2 venues · 21 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Illinois Senate margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.0% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.9% Bid 5.0% · Ask 18.8% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 12.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 32.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 15.0% Democrat 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.6% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Stratton, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.9% Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.9% Stratton, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.2% Stratton, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0% Stratton, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 78.0% Stratton, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0% Stratton, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	55.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 62.0% Stratton, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 53.0% Stratton, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0% Stratton, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0% Stratton, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Stratton, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0% Stratton, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Stratton, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.2% Bid 5.4% · Ask 17.0% Stratton, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.0%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.9%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 18.8%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 12.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 32.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 15.0%

Democrat 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.6%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Stratton, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

94.9%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.9%

Stratton, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.2%

Stratton, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0%

Stratton, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 78.0%

Stratton, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 70.0%

Stratton, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 62.0%

Stratton, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 53.0%

Stratton, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0%

Stratton, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0%

Stratton, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Stratton, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0%

Stratton, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Stratton, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.2%

Bid 5.4% · Ask 17.0%

Stratton, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets