Market comparison

Illinois's 15th District margin of victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 6s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Illinois's 15th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 11.0% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Miller, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 95.3% Miller, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	80.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 85.0% Miller, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0% Miller, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 64.0% Miller, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 55.0% Miller, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 44.0% Miller, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Miller, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 24.0% Miller, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Miller, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.2% Bid 4.3% · Ask 14.0% Miller, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.5% Republican 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.8% Republican 10-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.3% Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.3% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.9% Bid 32.4% · Ask 39.4% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 31.0% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 24.0% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.0% Republican 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 6.7% Republican 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 50%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.6% Republican 50%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 11.0%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Miller, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 95.3%

Miller, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

80.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 85.0%

Miller, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0%

Miller, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 64.0%

Miller, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 55.0%

Miller, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 44.0%

Miller, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

29.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Miller, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 24.0%

Miller, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Miller, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.2%

Bid 4.3% · Ask 14.0%

Miller, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.5%

Republican 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.8%

Republican 10-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.3%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

35.9%

Bid 32.4% · Ask 39.4%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 31.0%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 24.0%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.0%

Republican 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 6.7%

Republican 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 50%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.6%

Republican 50%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets