Market comparison

Illinois's 6th District margin of victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 23s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 23s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Illinois's 6th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Casten, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.5% Bid 91.5% · Ask 98.0% Casten, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.6% Bid 79.0% · Ask 90.2% Casten, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.5% Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0% Casten, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 69.0% Casten, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 56.0% Casten, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 46.0% Casten, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 35.0% Casten, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 25.0% Casten, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Casten, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.3% Bid 4.6% · Ask 14.0% Casten, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.1% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.7% Bid 2.5% · Ask 22.9% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.6% Bid 23.4% · Ask 23.9% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.3% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.0% Democrat 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Casten, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.5%

Bid 91.5% · Ask 98.0%

Casten, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.6%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 90.2%

Casten, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

72.5%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0%

Casten, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 69.0%

Casten, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 56.0%

Casten, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 46.0%

Casten, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 35.0%

Casten, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 25.0%

Casten, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Casten, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.3%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 14.0%

Casten, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.1%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.1%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.7%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 22.9%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.6%

Bid 23.4% · Ask 23.9%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.0%

Democrat 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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