Market comparison

Indiana's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 12s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 12s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Indiana's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Baird, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.3% Bid 87.0% · Ask 95.3% Baird, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 86.0% Baird, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 67.0% · Ask 78.0% Baird, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 64.0% Baird, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 51.0% Baird, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 28+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0% Baird, 28+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0% Baird, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 34+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.3% Bid 2.6% · Ask 14.0% Baird, 34+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baird, 37+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.3% Baird, 37+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.3% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.7% Republican 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.0% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.7% Bid 13.3% · Ask 16.1% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.4% Bid 6.5% · Ask 16.3% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 29.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.3% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9% Republican 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Baird, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.3%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 95.3%

Baird, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 86.0%

Baird, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 78.0%

Baird, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 64.0%

Baird, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 51.0%

Baird, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 28+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0%

Baird, 28+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0%

Baird, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 34+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.3%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 14.0%

Baird, 34+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Baird, 37+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.3%

Baird, 37+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.3%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.7%

Republican 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 10.0%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.7%

Bid 13.3% · Ask 16.1%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.4%

Bid 6.5% · Ask 16.3%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 29.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.3%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9%

Republican 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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