Market comparison

Iowa's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $20K reported volume

Observed 46s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 46s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Iowa's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.7% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
McGowan, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.3% Bid 91.7% · Ask 97.0% McGowan, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.0% McGowan, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 85.0% McGowan, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	75.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 76.0% McGowan, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.5% Bid 61.0% · Ask 66.0% McGowan, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 57.0% McGowan, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0% McGowan, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% McGowan, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 6.6% · Ask 18.0% McGowan, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% McGowan, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGowan, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.2% McGowan, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.4% Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.5% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 9.8% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.9% Bid 1.9% · Ask 28.0% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.3% Bid 4.7% · Ask 20.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 1.2% · Ask 6.1% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.8% Bid 1.3% · Ask 12.3% Republican 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.7%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

McGowan, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

94.3%

Bid 91.7% · Ask 97.0%

McGowan, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.0%

McGowan, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 85.0%

McGowan, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

75.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 76.0%

McGowan, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

63.5%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 66.0%

McGowan, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 57.0%

McGowan, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0%

McGowan, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

McGowan, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 6.6% · Ask 18.0%

McGowan, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

McGowan, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGowan, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.2%

McGowan, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.5%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 9.8%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.9%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 28.0%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.3%

Bid 4.7% · Ask 20.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 6.1%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.8%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 12.3%

Republican 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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