The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Jon Ossoff announces a presidential run by...?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 10s ago

Recorded venue end date: Apr 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Kalshi 'Before Apr 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET' are the same cutoff; Kalshi 'Before Jul 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'June 30, 2027' likewise. Kalshi's timezone for 'before' is not stated, but the cutoff is effectively midnight at the turn of the date.
  • Kalshi relies on announcements reported by a Source Agency (own campaign or person only); Polymarket uses Ossoff's official statements with credible reporting consensus as a fallback. The sources could differ on borderline announcements.
  • Polymarket explicitly excludes conditional, sarcastic or jesting statements and requires an explicit, unambiguous announcement; Kalshi excludes exploratory committees and statements of interest. Wording differs on borderline cases.
  • Kalshi has additional outcomes (Before Jan 1, 2027 and Before Oct 1, 2027) that Polymarket lacks; they are not linked.
  • Kalshi rules text is truncated in the outcome-level rules, though the full text appears in the main rules.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

June 30, 2027

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 30.0%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

40.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 57.0%

June 30, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 19.0 pp

March 31, 2027

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 18.0%

Before Apr 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

March 31, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0%

Before Oct 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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