Market comparison
Kentucky Republican Governor nominee?
2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗39 outcomes · $9K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: May 19, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: May 17, 2028
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi resolves on the nominee via accelerated determination after a media consensus projection; Polymarket uses the first official Kentucky Republican Party announcement, though overwhelming credible reporting may suffice. These sources could differ in timing, but should name the same nominee in ordinary cases.
- Polymarket resolves to "Other" if no nominee is announced by Nov 2, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback date in the provided text, and its venue end date is 2028-05-17. The fallback is far past the May 2027 primary.
- Polymarket lists Brett St. Amand and Nate Morris, which Kalshi does not list. Those outcomes are unlinked. If either wins, Kalshi's listed outcomes all resolve No, while Polymarket's matching outcomes resolve Yes.
- Kalshi's rules for unlisted nominees say every market resolves No; Polymarket has an "Other" fallback only for no announced nominee, and its text does not address nominees outside the list.
- Kalshi's venue end date is 2028-05-17, versus Polymarket's 2027-05-19. This is a listed end date, not a settlement deadline, and the nomination is determined by the May 2027 primary.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Charles "Bruiser" Martin Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.4 pp | ||
Daniel Cameron Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.9 pp | ||
James Comer Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Rick Hardin Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.9 pp | ||
Savannah Maddox Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.3 pp | ||
Thomas Massie Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp | ||
Brett St. Amand Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Nate Morris Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Charles "Bruiser" Martin
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.4 pp
Daniel Cameron
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.9 pp
James Comer
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Rick Hardin
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.9 pp
Savannah Maddox
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.3 pp
Thomas Massie
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.5 pp
Brett St. Amand
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Candidate AA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Candidate AB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Candidate AC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Candidate AD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Nate Morris
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.