The Prediction Markets

Kentucky Republican Governor nominee?

Closes
May 17, 2028, in 19 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 d ago
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What the markets expect

James Comer 76%

Next is Thomas Massie at 5.3%. The venues differ most on James Comer (Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 86%), a 5.5-point gap.

James Comer 76%Thomas Massie 5.3%Rick Hardin 4.8%Savannah Maddox 4.1%Daniel Cameron 3%3 others 6.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 26 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
James Comer
76%
Polymarket 80.5%(75.2% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 86%(77.1% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Comer
Last price
80.5%
Fair, margin removed
75.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Comer
Last price
86%
Fair, margin removed
77.1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Thomas Massie
5.3%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rick Hardin
4.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Hardin
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rick Hardin
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Savannah Maddox
4.1%
Polymarket 5%polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Savannah Maddox
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$596
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Savannah Maddox
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Daniel Cameron
3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Cameron
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Cameron
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brett St. Amand
2.8%
Polymarket 3%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brett St. Amand
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles "Bruiser" Martin
2.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles "Bruiser" Martin
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruiser Martin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nate Morris
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Morris
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 26 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on the nominee via accelerated determination after a media consensus projection; Polymarket uses the first official Kentucky Republican Party announcement, though overwhelming credible reporting may suffice. These sources could differ in timing, but should name the same nominee in ordinary cases.
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if no nominee is announced by Nov 2, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback date in the provided text, and its venue end date is 2028-05-17. The fallback is far past the May 2027 primary.
  • Polymarket lists Brett St. Amand and Nate Morris, which Kalshi does not list. Those outcomes are unlinked. If either wins, Kalshi's listed outcomes all resolve No, while Polymarket's matching outcomes resolve Yes.
  • Kalshi's rules for unlisted nominees say every market resolves No; Polymarket has an "Other" fallback only for no announced nominee, and its text does not address nominees outside the list.
  • Kalshi's venue end date is 2028-05-17, versus Polymarket's 2027-05-19. This is a listed end date, not a settlement deadline, and the nomination is determined by the May 2027 primary.
  • Trading closes at different times: May 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and May 17, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kentucky State Board of Elections
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on the nominee via accelerated determination after a media consensus projection; Polymarket uses the first official Kentucky Republican Party announcement, though overwhelming credible reporting may suffice. These sources could differ in timing, but should name the same nominee in ordinary cases.
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if no nominee is announced by Nov 2, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback date in the provided text, and its venue end date is 2028-05-17. The fallback is far past the May 2027 primary.
  • Polymarket lists Brett St. Amand and Nate Morris, which Kalshi does not list. Those outcomes are unlinked. If either wins, Kalshi's listed outcomes all resolve No, while Polymarket's matching outcomes resolve Yes.
  • Kalshi's rules for unlisted nominees say every market resolves No; Polymarket has an "Other" fallback only for no announced nominee, and its text does not address nominees outside the list.
  • Kalshi's venue end date is 2028-05-17, versus Polymarket's 2027-05-19. This is a listed end date, not a settlement deadline, and the nomination is determined by the May 2027 primary.
  • Trading closes May 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and May 17, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Comer
  • Thomas Massie
  • Rick Hardin

Live prices for James Comer

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky Republican Governor nominee?". James Comer leads at 76%. Next is Thomas Massie at 5.3%. $11K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 17, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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