Market comparison
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $50K reported volume
Observed 40s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $49K reported volume
Observed 40s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Cobolli Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Brandon Nakashima Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 53.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 57.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Game Spread +/-2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 53.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 96.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 52.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 56.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 100.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid — · Ask 100.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 100.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 43.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 51.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 41.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 46.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 39.5% Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 37.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 42.0% Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Cobolli
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Brandon Nakashima
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
53.5%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 57.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Game Spread +/-2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
53.0%
Bid 10.0% · Ask 96.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
52.0%
Bid 48.0% · Ask 56.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 100.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid — · Ask 100.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 100.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
43.0%
Bid 35.0% · Ask 51.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
41.5%
Bid 37.0% · Ask 46.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
39.5%
Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
37.5%
Bid 33.0% · Ask 42.0%
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.