Market comparison
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $4K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Van Assche Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Lorenzo Musetti Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 77.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 79.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 54.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 52.5% Bid 48.0% · Ask 57.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 49.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Game Spread +/-3.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 46.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 47.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 44.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 40.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 38.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 39.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 38.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 40.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 37.5% Bid 36.0% · Ask 39.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 27.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 29.0% Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Van Assche
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Lorenzo Musetti
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
77.0%
Bid 75.0% · Ask 79.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
54.0%
Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
52.5%
Bid 48.0% · Ask 57.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 47.0% · Ask 49.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Game Spread +/-3.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
46.0%
Bid 45.0% · Ask 47.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
44.0%
Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
40.5%
Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
38.0%
Bid 37.0% · Ask 39.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
38.0%
Bid 36.0% · Ask 40.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
37.5%
Bid 36.0% · Ask 39.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
27.5%
Bid 26.0% · Ask 29.0%
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.