The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 9s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Paul

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0%

Tommy Paul

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 36.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

85.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 86.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 98.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 69.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

60.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 67.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 58.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

41.5%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%

Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0%

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lyon Open: Tommy Paul vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Taylor Fritz (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Taylor Fritz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0%

Taylor Fritz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets