Market comparison
Medvedev vs Bublik
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $9K reported volume
Observed 48s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Medvedev Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Alexander Bublik Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 88.5% Bid 81.0% · Ask 96.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 67.5% Bid 64.0% · Ask 71.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 65.5% Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 59.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 61.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 58.5% Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 51.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 98.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 48.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 46.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 47.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Game Spread +/-2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 40.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 36.5% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Medvedev
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Alexander Bublik
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
88.5%
Bid 81.0% · Ask 96.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
67.5%
Bid 64.0% · Ask 71.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
65.5%
Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
59.5%
Bid 58.0% · Ask 61.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
58.5%
Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.5%
Bid 50.0% · Ask 51.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 2.0% · Ask 98.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
48.0%
Bid 1.0% · Ask 95.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
46.0%
Bid 45.0% · Ask 47.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Game Spread +/-2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
43.0%
Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
40.5%
Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
36.5%
Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0%
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.