The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner

2 venues · 67 outcome rows · 23 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

46 outcomes · $3.4M reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 8, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

69 outcomes · $1.1M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 12, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Blake Snell

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Blake Snell

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Blake Snell

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Brandon Woodruff

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Brandon Woodruff

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Brandon Woodruff

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Chase Burns

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Chase Burns

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Chase Burns

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Chris Sale

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Chris Sale

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.9%

Chris Sale

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Cristopher Sanchez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cristopher Sanchez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8%

Cristopher Sanchez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Eury Perez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Eury Perez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Eury Perez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Freddy Peralta

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Freddy Peralta

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Freddy Peralta

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Hunter Greene

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Hunter Greene

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Hunter Greene

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Jacob Misiorowski

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Jacob Misiorowski

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

98.4%

Bid 97.7% · Ask 99.1%

Jacob Misiorowski

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Jesus Luzardo

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jesus Luzardo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Jesus Luzardo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Logan Webb

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Logan Webb

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Logan Webb

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Mason Miller

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Mason Miller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Mason Miller

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Mitch Keller

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Mitch Keller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Mitch Keller

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Nick Lodolo

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nick Lodolo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nick Lodolo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Nick Pivetta

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nick Pivetta

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nick Pivetta

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Nolan McLean

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nolan McLean

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nolan McLean

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Paul Skenes

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Paul Skenes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.3%

Paul Skenes

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Shohei Ohtani

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Shohei Ohtani

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1%

Shohei Ohtani

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Spencer Schwellenbach

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Spencer Schwellenbach

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Spencer Schwellenbach

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Spencer Strider

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Spencer Strider

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Spencer Strider

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Tyler Glasnow

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tyler Glasnow

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tyler Glasnow

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 1.6%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Zack Wheeler

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Zack Wheeler

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Zack Wheeler

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Aaron Nola

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Aaron Nola

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Andrew Abbott

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Andrew Abbott

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Brady Singer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Brady Singer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bryce Elder

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Bryce Elder

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bubba Chandler

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Bubba Chandler

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cade Horton

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cade Horton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

David Peterson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

David Peterson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Edward Cabrera

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Edward Cabrera

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hurston Waldrep

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Hurston Waldrep

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jared Jones

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jared Jones

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jhoan Duran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jhoan Duran

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Joe Musgrove

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Joe Musgrove

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kodai Senga

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kodai Senga

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kyle Harrison

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kyle Harrison

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Matthew Boyd

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Matthew Boyd

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Michael King

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Michael King

Open Polymarket ↗

Mitch Keller

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Merrill Kelly

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

player AA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AH

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AH · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AI · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AJ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AJ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AK

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AK · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AL

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AL · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AM · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AN · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AO · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AQ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AQ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AR

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AR · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AS · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AT

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AT · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Quinn Priester

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Quinn Priester

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Robbie Ray

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Robbie Ray

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Roki Sasaki

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Roki Sasaki

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Sandy Alcantara

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Sandy Alcantara

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Sean Manaea

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Sean Manaea

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shota Imanaga

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Shota Imanaga

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tie/Co-Winners

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tie/Co-Winners

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.