Market comparison

Montana's 2nd District margin of victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $12K reported volume

Observed 21s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 21s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Montana's 2nd District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.8% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Downing, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 95.4% Downing, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 93.9% Downing, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	80.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 81.0% Downing, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 64.0% Downing, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0% Downing, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 28+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Downing, 28+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 5.1% · Ask 17.0% Downing, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 34+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.9% Downing, 34+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Downing, 37+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.7% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.2% Downing, 37+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.4% Republican 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.3% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.5% Bid 36.8% · Ask 38.1% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 39.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.5% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.7% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.2% Republican 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.8%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Downing, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 95.4%

Downing, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 93.9%

Downing, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 81.0%

Downing, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

58.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 64.0%

Downing, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0%

Downing, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 28+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Downing, 28+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 5.1% · Ask 17.0%

Downing, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 34+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.9%

Downing, 34+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Downing, 37+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.7%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.2%

Downing, 37+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.4%

Republican 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.3%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 36.8% · Ask 38.1%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 39.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.5%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.7%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.2%

Republican 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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